JohnWright:

Global warming might be fact or myth — this is not the place to discuss it. The fact is you came down to cool earth! BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA....

I take your words at face value — except for the understanding of DC. I just googled degree of certainty. Result: “about 7,270,000 [pages]”. It was only my page in 2001, I guess 2002 also…

The start of FFG can be traced all the way back to Abraham de Moivre (17^th century). My belief is that de Moivre stopped the development of his formula out of fear. Ultimately, the formula proves that the concept of god represents absolute absurdity. Aby de Moivre could have lost his life. How lucky me, huh? BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA!!! Again, this ain’t the place for such discussions.

The sitemap (content) of my website has a probability section. There are many pages there. I refer you to one of the important ones, dealing with ‘Probability Caveats’. It begins with the beginning: de Méré case studied by Pascal. It signed the birth certificate of probability theory.

Pascal had a case of three trials, where p = 1/2 (two backgammon players of even strength). You took as an example a case of four trials, where p = 1/2. How many possible elements can be in this Saliusian set? Sixteen, of course: 2 ^ 4. Let’s say 1= heads and 2= tails. PermuteCombine.exe easily generates this kind of sets (option: Exponents).

 1  1  1  1

 1  1  1  2

 1  1  2  1

 1  1  2  2

 1  2  1  1

 1  2  1  2

 1  2  2  1

 1  2  2  2

 2  1  1  1

 2  1  1  2

 2  1  2  1

 2  1  2  2

 2  2  1  1

 2  2  1  2

 2  2  2  1

2  2  2  2

There is only one case of ‘3 heads followed by one tail”: 1,1,1,2. Also, only one case of ‘3 tail followed by one heads”. You can expand the number of trials. Overall, you will have the same percentage. Yes, if we bet on tails after 3 consecutive heads, we lose some 1/16 of the time. We could lose two, or three consecutive occasions like that. But for long? Couldn't we increase the bet after a few consecutive losses like that? Well, one reason they don't let me play roulette... It is even more obvious when you consider that 4 heads in a row is (1/2) ^ 4 = 1/16. Don’t we have 16 elements in the Saliusian set?

Again, the space is limited and linking is prohibited. But my website is wide open to every possible visitor (except for hackers!)

Baseball’s league series is just around the corner…

Best of luck, Kokodrilo (big-time gambler)!

Ion Saliu,

Exponentially At-Large