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Subject : What is.. posted by JohnWright on Oct-08-2008 09:58pm |
Degree of certainty? I tried looking it up online and found only two results, your web page, and a wikipedia article about some guy named Rudolf Carnap(oh and also one on gamblers fallacy). And the page never said he was able to come up with a formula. How do I know this isn't just pseudo-math? Can you cite anything published that explains what DC is? Because even your own website doesn't do a great job. I'm not above going to a library and checking out a book on stats(I did it to understand Standard Deviation and Variance. Even if it was only to realize that it was beyond my means to calculate it for blackjack, and sims would be a better option). Just recommend the book. I'm not going to pretend I know mathematics better than you(although it seems like you just made up DC and FFG). But I am going to say that applying your idea to gambling is completely flawed. The idea that when a coin is flipped 4 times it will hit heads at least once most of the time is true. But to then take this idea and say that since after 3 flips it's been tails each time, so it will almost definitely be heads next time is fallacious. If your bet was that in the next four flips one would be heads(and you got a 1:1 payoff) then of course it would be a good bet. Either way, even though I don't know what DC really is, it doesn't apply in this situation. In the former case probability is 50% making the bet no better or worse. In the latter case I believe the probability of not hitting is 1 in 16? Even if I'm off it's obvious that there's a much greater than 50% chance of a heads popping up, making it a good bet. It's probability that rules here, not DC, whatever that may be. You even admit on your website that card counting works. You clearly state that you can gain up to a 2% advantage in a single deck fully played out, and your rationale behind "card counting having virtually no mathematical basis" is that multi-deck games and cut cards diminish the advantage to a fraction of what it used to be. There's still an advantage though. By the way I think that the moderators should allow you to post your website. I'm sure the math-savvy people on this board could discredit your gambling ideas much more handily than I. For those interested, just do a search for Degree of certainty, or fundamental formula of gambling, or the guys name even. |
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