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Subject : Re: In response to Baddogs, Mad-dogs, Dabblers, Dilettantes, CC Scammers & Addicts posted by JohnWright on Oct-08-2008 03:29pm |
| I don't think math is even required to show you have no idea what you're talking about. First off the definition of probability theory is NOT the science of streaks. It's analysis of random events, and likelihood of their occurrence. Streaks may be analyzed in this field, but it doesn't define it. My second point is the law of independent trials. This puts to rest the whole idea of predicting streaks does it not? NO matter how many times you flip heads in a row, you still only have a 50% chance of flipping it next time(unless of course it's a biased coin). In blackjack looking for streaks is even less relevant, because if you get blackjack 3 times in a row, and the fourth ace was already played in an earlier hand, I don't care what kind of streak you think you're having, you WILL NOT GET BLACKJACK THE NEXT HAND. And that's the foundation of card counting. It's about understanding which cards are left in the deck. There's plenty of math behind it, but there's no single formula to prove its validity. But if you're interested, I'm sure a genius mind like yours could calculate the increase in the odds of you being dealt a +EV hand for each low card that is taken out of the deck. |
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