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Subject : What I have to do posted by ETFan on Nov-22-2006 04:07pm |
MJ1, This is a little math puzzle, and I have to clear out a couple hours where I can write it all out in excruciating detail. I've done this kind of puzzle before, and it comes out different each time, depending on the parameters you start with. Speed is definitely a factor. I can tell you, with the conditions you've layed out, some top authorities would come out on opposite sides. I think Schlessinger and Snyder would come out on one side, while MathProf and DD' would come out the other way. I won't tell you how I'm guessing until I do the math. ;) PowerSim gives you the raw data to answer these questions, but it takes a little scribbling to get from there to here. You can do the comparison more directly with some simulators, but that would take a little programming with PowerSim in its current form. But I would regard the question of how much to bet on two hands in positive EV counts as long settled math. There were articles on this in Blackjack Forum, oh I don't know, 15 years ago? You bet to keep the same Risk Of Ruin. When you do that, the total bet on two hands isn't double what you'd bet on one hand. It's 146% of what you'd bet on one hand. So if you'd normally bet 1 x $100, you'd want to bet $73 on each of two hands. So it would improve your take home pay by 46% per hour, EXCEPT that it does take a little longer to play two hands... I'll try to get to it on Friday. ETF MJ1 wrote: > > > It depends on how fast you play, and whether you're required to bet twice table minimum to play two hands. It also depends on whether there's someone standing next to you eager to grab your second spot. > > Thanks for responding ETF. Let me try and provide the additional information you requested and perhaps you can help me (and other like minded players) figure out the best course of action. > * I can play fairly fast...nearly 150% faster than the average ploppy...not really sure what my speed has to do with it though. > * I do NOT have to bet twice the table minimum to play 2 hands. > * Other players are eager to take the second spot. > > > These things can be worked out very precisely. You just need the covariance between hands at a table (about 0.5 for two hands), number of players at the table, speed of all players (counters usually assume they play faster than other players, and can play two hands in less than twice the time for one hand), and bet spread -- including required minimums. > > * Like I stated before, 3 other players at the table beside me. > * The speed of the other players is the speed of the avg ploppy. Assume 50 rounds/Hr. > * Spreading from 1 to 20 (on one hand or both hands). > * Table minimum is $10/Hand. > > > But it's always better to play two hands in positive counts with others at the table, unless the edge is so tiny you can't afford the house minimumX2. You want to eat more cards in positive counts when others are competing for those same high cards. > > > And if you play two hands pretty fast, and you're concernd about time under the eye, then it's better to play two hands in negative counts, unless you have to pay 2Xmin on each hand. But this is a much closer decision. > > So your saying the best option for these conditions is to ALWAYS play 2 hands in both positive and negative counts. This way I am assured two spots for the high counts. > > BTW, can PowerSim be used to figure out the optimal bets for switching back and forth between 1 hand in neg and neutral counts and 2 hands in positive counts? > > MJ > > > |
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