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Steve Forte responds to errors in the ace sequencing and shuffle tracking information in David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction.
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LETTER FROM STEVE FORTE REGARDING DAVID MCDOWELL'S BLACKJACK ACE PREDICTION

 
bad shuffle tracking methods in ace prediction gambling system
 
SCAMS, CONS, AND PHONY SYSTEMS : CONTENTS
ace location gambling scam One Million Roulette Experts: A Swami
    Pastrami Parable on Winners'
    Testimonials
    By Arnold Snyder
phony ace prediction gambling system Comic Book Blackjack Systems
    By Arnold Snyder
phony gambling system and winners Non-Random Shuffle Systems
    By Arnold Snyder
phony ace prediction gambling system Gambling Systems' 'Big Secrets'
    By Arnold Snyder
Articles about David McDowell's
Blackjack Ace Prediction:
phony ace prediction gambling system McDowell's Folly: Serious Mistakes in
    Blackjack Math and Methodology in
    David McDowell's Blackjack Ace
    Prediction
    By Arnold Snyder
ace location gambling scam Convexing Calculations for McDowell's
    Blackjack Ace Prediction Book, or--I'm
    Sorry
    By ETFan
phony professional gambling system Errata in McDowell's Errata: Problems
    with Fundamental Blackjack Math in
    Blackjack Ace Prediction
    By Arnold Snyder

Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell presents a phony 'professional' gambling system Post Regarding Snyder's Comments
    on Blackjack Ace Prediction
    By ETFan

phony gambling system disguised as professional gambling system David McDowell's Blackjack Ace
    Prediction: A False Key to Ace
    Sequencing
    By Radar O'Reilly
Ace location method full of errors Mistakes in False Key Probability in
    David McDowell's Blackjack Ace
    Prediction and Corrections of
    McDowell's Win Rate Estimate
    By Radar O'Reilly
Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell full of blackjack math errors Further Corrections of Ace Prediction
    Math
    By S. Yama
Blackjack Ace Prediction an incompetent work on non random shuffles and ace sequencing Player Alert: More Problems with the
    False Key Probability in McDowell’s
    Blackjack Ace Prediction
    By Arnold Snyder
Steve Forte comments on phony gambling system presented in Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell Letter from Steve Forte about
    Blackjack Ace Prediction
Bill Zender comments on Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell Letter from Bill Zender about
    Blackjack Ace Prediction
Other Gambling Cons and Scams
Gambling scams and cons Reach Out and Fleece Someone
    By Arnold Snyder
Gambling scams and cons Flipped
    By Dunbar
NBJ Blackjack System by E. Clifton Davis, phony gambling system New Blackjack, Same Old Baloney:
    Review of E. Clifton Davis' NBJ System
    By Arnold Snyder with commentary by
    Boardwalker
Articles about Jerry Patterson and the TARGET System
Jerry Patterson and TARGET blackjack system Patterson Bars Snyder from TARGET
    By Arnold Snyder (Coming soon)
TARGET gambling system and Jerry Patterson Off Target
    By Arnold Snyder
phony blackjack system and Jerry Patterson I Saw It With My Own Eyes
    By Arnold Snyder
<i>Break the Dealer</i> by Jerry Patterson Review of Break the Dealer, by Jerry L.
    Patterson and Eddie Olsen
    By Arnold Snyder
phony blackjack system by Jerry Patterson Response to Arnold Snyder's Review
    of Break the Dealer
    By Jerry Patterson
phony gambling system, Break the Dealer by Jerry Patterson Snyder's Response to Patterson's
    Response to Snyder's Review of
    Break the Dealer
    By Arnold Snyder
Articles about Leonard Benson and the Power Numbers Blackjack System
Power Numbers Blackjack by Leonard Benson John Leib Challenges
    Leonard Benson
    By Arnold Snyder and John Leib
Power Numbers Blackjack by Leonard Benson Leonard Benson Takes the Challenge
    By John Leib
Power Numbers Blackjack by Leonard Benson 22 Hours of Leonard Benson's
    Power Numbers Blackjack System

    By John Leib
 
COMPUTER POWER TO THE PEOPLE!!
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  LETTER FROM STEVE FORTE REGARDING DAVID MCDOWELL'S BLACKJACK ACE PREDICTION
By Steve Forte
(From Blackjack Forum XXIV #2, Spring 2005)
© 2005 Blackjack Forum


Some months back I was asked to endorse a new book on Ace Prediction by David McDowell.

Not being an active player, I first declined and suggested that the book was better reviewed by professional players. I was asked again. Given a minor business relationship with Michael Dalton (he sells my video series), and some limited, albeit enjoyable correspondence with the author, I acquiesced.

I flipped through the book quickly, noting a lengthy history of the strategy and what appeared to be an exhaustive mathematical/computer analysis. My first impressions were good. I then randomly arrived on a photo of a sorted deck with a reference to me and a related strategy. Having never talked with the author about this reference, I read this section quickly, and to be perfectly honest, the reference was taken completely out of context and I was puzzled by the author's application.

So I then flipped to some of the endorsements and noticed a list of icons in the blackjack world. Since I really didn't have the time to read the book carefully, I blindly jumped to the conclusion that, after 20 plus years, someone had finally written a dedicated, quality book on ace tracking.

Now, after looking over some of the analysis and comments submitted by Arnold Snyder, and going back to the book to review some of the material, I suspect that I may be guilty of (a) trying to be a nice guy and (b) falling into a common trap often seen in gambling literature: that of endorsing a product not read carefully by the endorser, or endorsing a product more strongly than it truly deserves.

Aside from my personal feelings that the author's intentions are good, Arnold Snyder's position is very strong. It's also very compelling as he backs up his opinion with substance. A careful reread of Ace Prediction does reveal some oddities regarding the fundamentals of applying the strategy, some overly optimistic bet expectations, and win rates where none appear to exist. To over-rate the profit potential of a strategy or system can, of course, be very dangerous and costly to the typical player.

It's for all of these reasons that it makes perfect sense to challenge the viability of the strategy as presented. It's good for everyone: authors, experts, mathematicians and, most importantly, the players. After all, with any book written for the player, ultimately, only one criteria really matters: Does the strategy win?

How this notably different view of this work plays out in the blackjack community should prove to be a valuable lesson to us all. It will be especially interesting to see if any other endorsers "step up to the plate" after taking a closer look at the research. ♠

Steve Forte





Spring 2005 Blackjack Forum

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  Steve Forte Responds to Errors in a Book on Blackjack Ace Location
In this article, casino gambling expert Steve Forte responds to the mathematical and methodological errors in David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction. Problems with the shuffle tracking and ace prediction methodology in the book, as well as the author's gross overstatement of the edge due to fundamental mistakes in blackjack math, cause Steve Forte to retract his endorsement.