Blackjack Forum Poker Tournaments  
Make more accurate blackjack insurance decisions in card counting with the Victor Insurance Parameter. Because it's a level three card counting system with an ace side count, the Victor APC card counting system can make all your blackjack playing decisions more accurate.
Arnold Snyder's Blackjack Forum Online Home Arnold Snyder Contact Information About Arnold Snyder's Blackjack Forum Online How to Win at Blackjack Arnold Snyder's Blackjack Forum, Trade Journal for Professional Gamblers Since 1981, New Issue Blackjack and Gambling Forums Moderated by Professional Gamblers blackjack insurance decisions from the Blackjack Forum Gambling Library Best Internet Casinos and Smart Online Gaming Gambling Books Recommended by Professional Gamblers Links to Gambling Sites Recommended by Professional Gamblers  
 

IMPROVING YOUR INSURANCE DECISIONS: THE VICTOR INSURANCE PARAMETER

 
more accurate blackjack insurance decisions and ace side count
 
ANALYSIS & THEORY OF BLACKJACK
Blackjack Strategy A Theoretical Basis for
    The Victor Insurance Parameter
    By ET Fan
Card Counting Reality 42.08%
    By James Grosjean and Previn
    Mankodi
Blackjack Strategy Scavenger Blackjack
    By James Grosjean and Previn
    Mankodi
Why Card Counting Works Beyond Coupons
    By James Grosjean and Previn
    Mankodi
The Easiest Professional Level Card Counting System Excerpt from Beat the 6-Deck Game
    How to Use Frequency Distributions to
    Determine Your Win Rate and
    Fluctuations
    By Arnold Snyder
Best Opportunities Right Now for Blackjack Players The Hi-Lo Lite and Rounding Indices:
    Why All Those Index Numbers Card
    Counters Have Been Learning For
    Years Never Really Mattered
    By Arnold Snyder
How Professional Gamblers Win How True is Your True Count?
    By Arnold Snyder w/ Dr. John Gwynn Jr.
Card Counting Reality Can Side-Counting Make You a     Super Counter?
    By Arnold Snyder
Blackjack Strategy The "Best" Card Counting System
    By Arnold Snyder
Card Counting Reality Comparing Card Counting Systems:
    A Comparison of the Red Seven, KO,
    and Hi-Lo Counts (And How Blackjack
    Systems Are Best Compared)
    By Arnold Snyder
    with computer sims by John Auston
Blackjack Strategy Insure a Good Hand? Part I
    By Marvin L. Master
Card Counting Reality Insure a Good Hand? Part II
    By Peter A. Griffin
Blackjack Strategy Surrender: When It Pays to Say
    "Uncle!"
    By Arnold Snyder
Card Counting Reality Six-Deck Unbalanced Red-7 Running
    Count Conversion to Equivalent Hi-Lo
    Balanced True Count and Sensitivity of
    True Count to Errors in Estimating
    Decks Remaining
    By Conrad Membrino
Blackjack Strategy Algebraic Approximations of Optimum
    Blackjack Strategy (Revised)
    By Arnold Snyder
Card Counting Reality Super Sevens Snafu
    By Arnold Snyder
Blackjack Strategy Man vs. Computer: Does Casino
    Blackjack Differ from Computer-
    Simulated Blackjack?
    (On Non-Random Shuffles)
    By Dr. John M. Gwynn, Jr. and Arnold
    Snyder
Card Counting Reality Ruffled by the Non-Random Shuffle
    By Arnold Snyder
Blackjack Strategy Shoehenge…Probing the Multi-Deck
    Mysteries
    By Arnold Snyder
Card Counting Reality Improving Your Insurance Decisions:
    The Victor Insurance Parameter
    By Rich Victor
Blackjack Strategy So You Think You're A Blackjack
    Expert?
    By Arnold Snyder
Card Counting Reality On the Math Behind the OPP
    Count
    By Kim Lee
Card Counting Reality Late Surrender & Blackjack Statistics
    By Arnold Snyder
Blackjack Strategy Bad Player at the Blackjack Table:
    Do Other Players Steal Your Aces?
    By Arnold Snyder
Card Counting Reality The Blackjack Insurance Bet
    By Arnold Snyder
 
COMPUTER POWER TO THE PEOPLE!!
FROM ET FAN:

Best Internet casino software review


Best Casino Bonuses Online


  IMPROVING YOUR INSURANCE DECISIONS: THE VICTOR INSURANCE PARAMETER
by Rich Victor
(From Blackjack Forum Vol. XXII #1, Spring 2002, Updated Fall 2007)
©Copyright 2007 Blackjack Forum

If you are a blackjack player who side-counts aces and uses a balanced, ace-neutral primary count, the Victor Insurance Parameter (VIP) can improve your game. The Victor Insurance Parameter is defined as the running count divided by the number of unseen aces. It provides a much simpler and more accurate assessment of the insurance situation than the customary match-up of true count and insurance index.

Like many blackjack card-counting techniques, traditional insurance decision-making is both cumbersome and imprecise. It involves estimates of undealt cards, true-count computations, and multiple indices for different numbers of decks -- while still failing to account for the impact of ace-density. Yet as the Victor Insurance Parameter demonstrates, this unwieldy process can be avoided entirely. For ace side-counters, implausible as it may seem, the size of the remaining pack (or shoe), the true count, and the original number of decks in play are all immaterial to an optimal insurance decision.

An insurance bet is indicated whenever the VIP exceeds the applicable "threshold-value," which varies from one counting system to another. But the appropriate threshold-value for a given system is the same regardless of the number of decks in play. In the infrequent event that there are no unseen aces, insurance should be taken on any positive count.

In his excellent article, A Theoretical Basis for the Victor Insurance Parameter, ET Fan not only presents an elegant mathematical proof of the validity of the VIP concept, but also identifies a simple method for determining the optimal threshold-value for any balanced, ace-neutral counting system. Additionally, he provides exact threshold-values for several of those systems:

Hi-Opt I: 2/3 (rounded to 0.67);
Canfield: 5/6 (0.83);
Hi-Opt II: 7/6 (1.17);
Omega II: 4/3 (1.33);
Uston APC: 16/9 (1.78);
Victor APC: 11/6 (1.83).

Although insurance should be taken whenever the VIP exceeds the applicable threshold-value, an alternative, equivalent (and possibly easier) guideline is available for several of the above systems:

  • For Hi-Opt I: Insure when 1.5 times the running count exceeds the number of unseen aces.
  • For the Canfield count: Insure when 1.2 times the running count exceeds the number of unseen aces.
  • For Omega II: Insure when 75% of the running count exceeds the number of unseen aces.
  • For the Victor APC: Insure when 55% of the running count exceeds the number of unseen aces.

To summarize, these are the ways in which the Victor Insurance Parameter can benefit a capable ace side-counter:

1. It eliminates the need to estimate (or mis-estimate) the size of the remaining pack and compute the true count. The ace side-counter already knows the number of unseen aces.

2. It's independent of the original number of decks in play. There's no need for multiple indices; one size fits all.

3. It fully accounts for the impact of aces as non-tens, a factor that cannot be addressed without an ace side-count.

4. It not only eliminates errors of estimation, but also adds roughly two percentage points to the insurance correlation of any balanced, ace-neutral counting system. For example, the insurance correlation of Omega II rises from 85% to 87%, while the Victor APC's insurance correlation goes from 89% to 91% with the VIP.

On average, the dealer will show an ace once every 13 hands -- so it's no small matter to be able to evaluate those situations quickly and accurately. The Victor Insurance Parameter is your shortest path to insurance efficiency. ♠



Return to the Professional Gambling Library

Return to Arnold Snyder's Blackjack Forum Online Home


 
© 2004-2007 Blackjack Forum Online, All Rights Reserved