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Steve Forte responds to errors in the ace sequencing and shuffle tracking information in David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction.
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Steve Forte On David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction

 
bad shuffle tracking methods in ace prediction gambling system
 
SCAMS, CONS, AND PHONY SYSTEMS : CONTENTS
Articles about David McDowell's
Blackjack Ace Prediction:
phony ace prediction gambling system McDowell's Folly: Serious Mistakes in
    Blackjack Math and Methodology in
    David McDowell's Blackjack Ace
    Prediction
    By Arnold Snyder
ace location gambling scam Convexing Calculations for McDowell's
    Blackjack Ace Prediction Book, or--I'm
    Sorry
    By ETFan
phony professional gambling system Errata in McDowell's Errata: Problems
    with Fundamental Blackjack Math in
    Blackjack Ace Prediction
    By Arnold Snyder

Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell presents a phony 'professional' gambling system Post Regarding Snyder's Comments
    on Blackjack Ace Prediction
    By ETFan

phony gambling system disguised as professional gambling system David McDowell's Blackjack Ace
    Prediction: A False Key to Ace
    Sequencing
    By Radar O'Reilly
Ace location method full of errors Mistakes in False Key Probability in
    David McDowell's Blackjack Ace
    Prediction and Corrections of
    McDowell's Win Rate Estimate
    By Radar O'Reilly
Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell full of blackjack math errors Further Corrections of Ace Prediction
    Math
    By S. Yama
Blackjack Ace Prediction an incompetent work on non random shuffles and ace sequencing Player Alert: More Problems with the
    False Key Probability in McDowell’s
    Blackjack Ace Prediction
    By Arnold Snyder
Steve Forte comments on phony gambling system presented in Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell Letter from Steve Forte about
    Blackjack Ace Prediction
Bill Zender comments on Blackjack Ace Prediction by David McDowell Letter from Bill Zender about
    Blackjack Ace Prediction
 
 
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Letter from Steve Forte Regarding Blackjack Ace Prediction

By Steve Forte
(From Blackjack Forum XXIV #2, Spring 2005)
© 2005 Blackjack Forum

Some months back I was asked to endorse a new book on Ace Prediction by David McDowell.

Not being an active player, I first declined and suggested that the book was better reviewed by professional players. I was asked again. Given a minor business relationship with Michael Dalton (he sells my video series), and some limited, albeit enjoyable correspondence with the author, I acquiesced.

I flipped through the book quickly, noting a lengthy history of the strategy and what appeared to be an exhaustive mathematical/computer analysis. My first impressions were good. I then randomly arrived on a photo of a sorted deck with a reference to me and a related strategy. Having never talked with the author about this reference, I read this section quickly, and to be perfectly honest, the reference was taken completely out of context and I was puzzled by the author's application.

So I then flipped to some of the endorsements and noticed a list of icons in the blackjack world. Since I really didn't have the time to read the book carefully, I blindly jumped to the conclusion that, after 20 plus years, someone had finally written a dedicated, quality book on ace tracking.

Now, after looking over some of the analysis and comments submitted by Arnold Snyder, and going back to the book to review some of the material, I suspect that I may be guilty of (a) trying to be a nice guy and (b) falling into a common trap often seen in gambling literature: that of endorsing a product not read carefully by the endorser, or endorsing a product more strongly than it truly deserves.

Aside from my personal feelings that the author's intentions are good, Arnold Snyder's position is very strong. It's also very compelling as he backs up his opinion with substance. A careful reread of Ace Prediction does reveal some oddities regarding the fundamentals of applying the strategy, some overly optimistic bet expectations, and win rates where none appear to exist. To over-rate the profit potential of a strategy or system can, of course, be very dangerous and costly to the typical player.

It's for all of these reasons that it makes perfect sense to challenge the viability of the strategy as presented. It's good for everyone: authors, experts, mathematicians and, most importantly, the players. After all, with any book written for the player, ultimately, only one criteria really matters: Does the strategy win?

How this notably different view of this work plays out in the blackjack community should prove to be a valuable lesson to us all. It will be especially interesting to see if any other endorsers "step up to the plate" after taking a closer look at the research. ♠

Steve Forte





Spring 2005 Blackjack Forum

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  Steve Forte Responds to Errors in a Book on Blackjack Ace Location
In this article, casino gambling expert Steve Forte responds to the mathematical and methodological errors in David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction. Problems with the shuffle tracking and ace prediction methodology in the book, as well as the author's gross overstatement of the edge due to fundamental mistakes in blackjack math, cause Steve Forte to retract his endorsement.